Ascot Champions day

Hey all

With many of todays races having short priced favourites we are trying something a little different, keeping te stakes low and trying to find something that offers more value than a shortie fav.

13:25 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

ORDER OF ST GEORGE 4/5 favourite was beaten at short odds last time round in tis race so straight away there is a chink in te armour.

There are little or no age trends to tis race making it a little more difficult to narrow down. With no fillies/mares in ere either wo dont go well we ave nothing to rule out imediately.

With all 10 of the last 10 winners finishing in the first 5 last time out this helps us get rid of CAPN and DARTMOUTH

9 of the last 10 winners ad won beyond 1M 5F this would rule out DURETTO

8 of last 10 winners had run in the last 40 days which rules out rather sceptically BIG ORANGE

8 of the last 10 winners had won a class 1 race ruling out STARS OVER THE SEA and MOUNT MORIAH

That leaves us with 7 runners, so now lets factor in todays conditions.

SOFT GROUND

Of te remainders STRADIVARIUS is the only one yet to win on todays ground conditions. TORCEDOR and SHEIKZAYEDROAD also sligtly favour better conditions so wont be wanting any more rain.

With just 4 left we apply one more trend, 8 of the last 10 winners ave come from the top 3 in the market meaning the winner comes in the form of  ORDER OF ST GEORGE 4/5 but what finishes in behind.

CLEVER COOKIE, NEARLY CAUGHT and DESERT SKYLINE are the remainders

Well of the last 10 winners 9 of tem posted a RPR of 112+ that rules out CLEVER COOKIE and NEARLY CAUGHT

The value bet based on all this is therefore DESERT SKYLINE 12/1 and PADDY POWER offer money back as a FREE BET if your horse finises 2nd, 3rd or 4th behind the SP fav

14:00 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

HARRY ANGEL 11/8 represents favouritism but he’s a little sort for us so lets delve a little deeper.

Fillies and mares have won just once in last 10 runnings despite representing almost a quarter of runners which sees us putting a line through QUIET REFLECTION and ALPHABET

All 10 of the last 10 winners had won over the 6F trip which reduces the field further, losing LIBRISIA BREEZE.

9 of the last 10 winners had run inside te last 45 days. Sceptically this rules out WASHINGTON DC and INTELLIGENCE CROSS.

Of the 3yo winners from this race in previous years all 5 had placed 4th or higher as a 2yo in a G1 race. Of today’s two 3yo’s only one can boast this and that is CARAVAGGIO. The other HARRY ANGEL did however win a G2 in rather telling fashion, but bucks the trends nonetheless.

Lets introduce todays conditions

SOFT GROUND

THE TIN MAN is yet to win on SOFT after 5 attempts on similar going and DANZENO is rather reluctant in these conditions too so that gives me a shortlist of

CARAVAGGIO, BRANDO, DONJUAN TRIUMPANT, TASLEET and despite bucking a trend HARRY ANGEL

The RPR ratings of the last 3 runnings may help to narrow the puzzle ruling out BRANDO

So to sum up we have the race between CARAVAGGIO and HARRY ANGEL with one place left to play for and that place most likely goes to TASLEET 16/1

That see’s us play again with PADDY POWER at 16/1 who offer money back as a FREE BET if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th behind SP Fav and a small cover bet on CARAVAGGIO 9/2 with BET365 who offer FREE BET up to £50 in next featured race if you back a winner at 4/1+

14:40 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

BATEEL 9/4 is one of the bigger favourites of the day but still a little short for our money so lets take a look what else is out there.

Generally horses over 4yo do not have a great record in this which straight away anchors the fav BATEEL and one other runner JOURNEY. With only 8 running however all trends are a little weak.

7 of the last 8 winners had run 3 or more times that season ruling out again rather sceptically THE JULIET ROSE.

7 of the last 8 winners had won a listed or Group race in that season and this rules out LEFT HAND

7 of the last 8 winners had won over todays trip or further ruling out HORSEPLAY and HYDRANGEA

Bringing my shortlist to BATEEL (I KNOW SHE BUCKS A TREND), ALYSSA, THE BLACK PRINCESS, CORONET and WILD IRISH ROSE

The next trend of a RPR rating of 108+ in last 3 races rules out ALYSSA and WILD IRISH ROSE

Leaving us with BATEEL the likely winner CORONET 13/2 for a place and a sceptical put on an outsider THE BLACK PRINCESS 40/1 whom we will take a very small interest only EW gamble on hopefully with our FREE BET COURTESY OF BET 365 AND CARAVAGGIO.

15:15 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) (Sponsored By Qipco) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

RIBCHESTER is just about available at 9/4 but likely to go off shorter but what value lies beneath.

3YO’S have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and of all 3 of the 4yo’s to win they had all won a G1 earlier that year. We have no winners of 6yo+ so lets see who that rules out. BRETON ROCK, HERE COMES WHEN and LIGTNING SPEAR all fall foul of this trend as do 4YO’s ZONDERLAND, NATHRA and PERSUASIVE. With ZONDERLAND only having one run this term so far we leave him in for now.

Despite being won by Minding last year Fillies do not have a great record in this and for that reason we put a line through SEA OF GRACE.

10 of the last 10 winners of this race finished in first 3 last time out (7 of them winners) so tats TOSCANINI and CHURCHILL gone.

10 of last 10 winners had run 3 or more times that season which is a further nail in the coffin of ZONDERLAND.

10 of the last 10 winners had won a group race in that season ruling out LANCASTER BOMBER and SIR JOHN LAVERY

This leaves us 4 runners, RIBCHESTER, AL WUKAIR, BEAT THE BANK and THUNDER SNOW

Today’s ground could not categorically rule either of the 4 out so we look at the 3yo’s. Of the 7 3yo winners all 7 had won a group race at 2yo and contested a 2yo G1. This rules out AL WUKAIR(listed only) and BEAT THE BANK leaving us with just the 2 Godolphin runners

RIBCHESTER 9/4 the likely winner and THUNDER SNOW 16/1 our EW BET with BET 365.

15:50 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

Another short fav in CRACKSMAN 2/1 so once again we go value hunting.

Age does very little to rule anything out here and neither does gender so lets turn to the trends

10 of the last 10 winners had won a class 1 race that year ruling out MAVERICK WAVE

9 of the last 10 winners had won over the distance ruling out DESERT ENCOUNTER and BARNEY ROY

lets take a look at the conditions

HIGHLAND REEL and CLIFFS OF MOHER have shown a liking for a firmer surface so we sideline those two here.

Now a look at the RPR ratings where 9 of the last 10 winners posted a rating of 116+ last time out. Ruling out SUCCESS DAYS and RECOLETOS

That leaves us with 3 runners, POETS WORD, BRAMETOT and CRACKSMAN and with CRACKSMAN never having encountered ground this soft we look to the other two. And its a small bet with PADDY POWER offering money back as a FREE BET should you finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th to SP FAV on the Sir Michael Stoute runer POETS WORD 7/1

16:30 Ascot 21 Oct 2017

Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) (Str) (Class 2) (3YO plus)

3/1 in a race of 20 runners is a little stingy for me so lets take a look at where the value lies.

With only 3 previous runnings of this race trend are none existant BUT WE ARE YET TO HAVE A WINNING FAV.

We do have a few little fun facts that we are going to apply to see where it leads.

ALL 3 previous winners have been draw 10 or lower which halves this field.

Of those previous 3 winners all 3 ran at Newmarket last time out and were all aged 5yo+ so what does that leave.

MASTER THE WORLD and GREENSIDE are the only remaining 2 and they finished behind a fair few of these on that occasion but were drawn the wrong side and have the more favourable draws today. Henry Candy’s runner GREENSIDE 25/1 was far better of the two that day and the yard have been in blistering for so a small EW bet with BET365 and their 4/1 + offer

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